ENGLEWOOD — Of all his habits, coach Nathaniel Hackett's desire to be liked seemed to exert the strongest gravitational pull on his behavior. His personality made it easy for players to become pulled into his orbit. He was fun. So were his meetings. Same for many of his practices during training camp.
What wasn't fun? Losing.
The Broncos bottomed out, delivering the most disappointing season in franchise history given the expectations. They posted a 5-11 record, and went 1-5 in the AFC West, Hackett's smile long gone – as were his belongings with one game remaining in the season.
New boss Sean Payton is everything that Hackett is not. He brings a reputation as an old-school coach who is heavy on accountability and light on compliments. When the Broncos' ownership met with him this offseason, they wanted to know if he still had the fire in his belly after his one-year retirement. That question was answered unequivocally, leading to his hiring and a clear vision for how the franchise could extract itself from a seven-year ditch.
Payton brings a no-nonsense approach. His makeover of the offensive line with right tackle Mike McGlinchey and left guard Ben Powers, and the addition of brutish running back Samaje Perine, suggests the Broncos will lean on a physical ground attack.
It's part of a plan to help Russell Wilson rebound. Can Wilson return to his old form? That question hangs over the franchise like an anvil. Wilson arrived in Denver as a nine-time Pro Bowler. He represented the 12th different starter since Super Bowl 50, a player capable of pulling the emergency brake on the carousel of madness. And then reality clobbered him over the head.
With Wilson trying to reinvent himself as Drew Brees — looking to work inside the pocket out of the shotgun — and Hackett unwilling to rein in the veteran as injuries and ineffectiveness mounted, the former Seahawks star looked lost. He posted career lows in touchdowns (16), completion percentage (60.5) and fired 11 interceptions, while dealing with right labrum, hamstring and concussion injuries.
In his previous six seasons, Wilson threw for 186 touchdowns with 53 interceptions and a 65.2% completion rate.
Payton is tasked with lifting Wilson back up — and it's fair to wonder if this is a one-year project without significant improvement. The Super Bowl-winning coach, one Wilson wanted to get the job, was asked about Wilson at the recent NFL owners meetings.
"He’s super competitive. He’s won at a high level. He’s someone that I think moves well. He’s someone that I think works extremely hard. It’s hard to find guys with all those traits. Now, I watched, with every one of you, the season that took place a year ago. I said this a little bit earlier. There’s probably a little bit of dirt on a lot of people’s hands," Payton said. "When you win five games, it is what it is. I don’t think I need to elaborate any more. It wasn’t good. Wasn’t good on offense, that’s for sure. It was hard film to watch.”
When looking for a bump for Wilson, it helps to examine the end of Brees' career under Payton. Though not apples to apples, there are some hallmarks that cannot be ignored.
From 2016-20, per ESPN, Brees posted the following stats:
Sacks per game: 1.3
Pressure rate: 20 percent
Time before pass attempt: 2.52 seconds
Compare that to Wilson's 2022 season with the Broncos:
Sacks per game: 3.7
Pressure rate: 35 percent
Time before pass attempt: 2.98 seconds
The first thing that must change is better pass protection. While Wilson can cause sacks by holding onto the ball too long and spinning out in scrambles, he too often found defenders in his lap last season. The Broncos allowed a league-worst 63 sacks, 55 on Wilson. In contrast, Brees was sacked 89 times over his last five seasons or 17.8 per year.
The onus is on McGlinchey, Powers, who didn't allow a sack last season, left tackle Garett Bolles, who is returning from a broken leg and ankle, and likely center Lloyd Cushenberry and right guard Quinn Meinerz to improve under new line coach Zach Strief. And it's not just about sacks. It's about hits as well. That's where the pressure rate comes in. Roughly 40 percent of Wilson's passing attempts were under duress last year. Brees' 20 percent number should be the goal.
Also, Wilson, who has appeared slimmer in pictures posted on social media this offseason, must incorporate running again. In his best games last season, both against the Chiefs, he rushed eight times for 84 yards and two touchdowns. Payton has a history of using quarterback runs, though they were almost exclusively designed for Taysom Hill. From 2017-2021, Hill rushed 221 times for 1,183 yards and 16 scores. Wilson is not that player, but the idea of Payton implementing run-pass options is realistic, if not expected.
During his losses last season, Wilson averaged 33 passes per game. In the four wins, he delivered 29 per game.
Digest the statistics, and there appears to be a blueprint for Wilson to find his way back. It starts with an upgraded offensive line, a better ground game — Denver averaged 113.8 yards last season, meaning 120 should be the goal — dramatically improved pass protection and a heavy dose of Payton's discipline and creativity.
Wilson arrived early on Tuesday for the offseason workouts, eager to get started. Hopefully, it represents the first steps on the road to redemption.
