ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — “Sleepless in Seattle” was a romantic comedy with quotable lines and memorable scenes.
“Winless in Miami” is a sad, tired commentary from a proud franchise. The Broncos play their first road game this season with the type of urgency associated with the final month of the season. They own an 0-2 record, losing by a combined three points. Only six teams since 1979 have dropped their first three games and reached the playoffs since 1979. A 17-game schedule creates a little bit of elasticity, but history is not kind. The last team to pull it off was the 2018 Houston Texans.
And it doesn’t help that the Broncos are facing the Miami Dolphins in their home opener looking to stage a fireworks show for their hot and humid fans. The Broncos are a 6.5-point underdog. They haven’t won a road game in the United States since Nov. 7, 2021, at Dallas, their lone victory in London last season vs. the Jaguars. They are 0-11 stateside since demolishing the Cowboys 30-16, the shining moment of Vic Fangio’s tenure.
Making matters worse, star safety Justin Simmons was ruled out with a groin/hip injury, leaving the Broncos to lean on Essang Bassey and Delarrin Turner-Yell.
Can they pull off an upset? My Denver7 keys to the game:
Run it back!
The Broncos spent the offseason rebuilding their offensive line to make “running part of their DNA.” However, through two games, coach Sean Payton has thrown 66 times compared to 45 rushing attempts, and only 35 from running backs Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin. The best defense vs. Miami is playing keep away. Fangio’s defense was gashed by the run in the opener before improving against the Patriots. Denver must produce steady chunks on the ground to control the clock and set up play action. Also, McLaughlin needs to go from one carry to around 5-to-6.
Mr. Clean, Mr. Clean
The Broncos lead the league with 19 penalties, including a league-high 12 on their defense. The only chance of shocking Miami starts with playing a clean game. Anything more than five penalties spells doom. And the defense’s goal should be one of fewer.
Pat vs. Tyreek
Pat Surtain II needs to spend most of his time in coverage on or near Tyreek Hill. He’s the kind of big corner that can give Hill problems, though Miami puts him in constant motion making it hard for Surtain to always track him. Hill will get targeted at least 12 times. Can Surtain and the secondary keep him to say six catches for 65 yards and no touchdowns? Also, it’s time to move Damarri Mathis closer to the line of scrimmage. He’s better in press coverage. Sitting back in zone with a big cushion will make him an easy mark for Tua Tagovailoa.
Find Consistency
The Broncos led 13-10 at half in the opener and 21-14 last week. They squandered both. They have lost their last seven games when trailing at halftime. It’s time to finish. It starts with Russell Wilson. He looks like a Pro Bowler in the first 30 minutes and a backup after intermission. For Wilson’s rebound to be taken seriously he must elevate the players around him. And he can’t be be afraid to get the ball in space to Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr.
Hands up
The Broncos pass rush showed improvement last week with four sacks. And a fifth by Drew Sanders was negated by a penalty. Tua gets rid of the ball in a blink. So, the strategy changes. D.J. Jones and Zach Allen need a good push inside – Denver ranks near the bottom in pressure produced by four-man fronts – and to get their hands up. Matt Henningsen showed it can work last week.
Special Delivery
Want to surprise the home team? Return a punt for a touchdown or into the red zone. Mims cranked out a 45-yarder last week. He has the potential to change a game with one burst. The special teams were perfect vs. Washington. Can they do it again and add a score?
Urgent Emergency
The Broncos players know the reality of 0-3 teams. They are the ugly guy in the fight. No reason not to take chances.
Troy’s Prediction: Dolphins 30, Broncos 22
