LOS ANGELES — The Broncos arrive in Los Angeles with their season a rejected movie script. They boast a 2-3 record, their offense scoring a squinting-required 15.0 points per game.
Hollywood, too often, is where dreams go to die, visions of celebrity turning into a life as a barista instead of an actor.
Sometimes, though, the underdog wins. Logic takes a PTO day. The Broncos have lost eight straight AFC West road games, their last victory against the Chargers on Oct. 6, 2019 in a soccer stadium.
It feels like Monday is the tipping point for the season.
"I am going to say this is a must-win for us," Broncos defensive tackle Dre'Mont Jones told Denver7.
Added running back Melvin Gordon, "Pressure either busts pipes or makes diamonds. Nobody in here is afraid of pressure. We just have to go out there and play and have fun."
The Broncos are 4.5-point underdog vs. the Chargers. I provide my Denver7 keys to pulling off the upset:
Rush for Russ
Russell Wilson wants to play until he's 45. But he doesn't need to play like he's 45 right now. He's not a pocket passer. The Broncos need to move the pocket, encourage plays off script and implore Wilson to use his feet. He averaged 5.4 rushes per game before arriving in Denver and sits at 3.4 this season. Getting to five is critical on Monday.
Deep dive
According to ESPN research, deep crossers and deep outs remain the two most efficient routes from a yards/route standpoint. And the Broncos run those less than 1 percent of the time, the second lowest rate in the league. Time to be more creative and customize to Wilson's skillset. And somebody, anybody, needs to make a play. The Broncos have 13 drops this season, an alarming number that has submarined drives.
Balanced diet
So how do deep routes open up? Through play action. And the Chargers are susceptible to the run, allowing 130.4 yards per game, ranking 25th in the league. Melvin Gordon told me he knows he must produce and take care of the football. This would be the ideal time for a breakout game against his former team.
Justin Time
Justin Herbert is a star. No one disputes this. But the Chargers quarterback has had issues against the Broncos' 3-4 scheme. His four interceptions vs. Denver is tied for the most against any team. Pat Surtain II picked off Herbert twice in a game last season. With star receiver Keenan Allen (hamstring) doubtful to play, Surtain will likely focus on containing Mike Williams. How good has Surtain been this season? According to Sports Info Solutions, he has been targeted 27 times for 129 yards. His Saran Wrap-tight coverage is part of why the Broncos are allowing the fewest passing yards per game (176.6) in the NFL.
Turn it over
The Broncos have caused a league-best nine fumbles. They have only recovered three. It stands to reason that if they continue to get the ball on the ground, they will pounce on more. A strip sack and score could turn this game around, if not the Broncos' season.
No Running from Truth
Getting strip sacks are not easy, obviously. But the probability increases if the Broncos can make the Chargers one dimensional, forcing them into third-and-longs. The Chargers were one of the league's worst teams on the ground until last week when Eaton's own Austin Ekeler burst for 173 yards on 16 carries. His previous season high was 60 yards. The Broncos must keep him under the latter.
Risk-reward coaches
Chargers coach Brandon Staley has been heavily scrutinized for taking risks on fourth down. Los Angeles should have lost when Staley went for it on fourth-and-1 in his own territory last Sunday, leading by two with 1:14 remaining and the Browns out of timeouts. Cleveland missed a 54-yard field goal as the Chargers slithered away with a win. Coach Nathaniel Hackett has been panned for kicking a 64-yard field goal in the opener and throwing on third down with 2:19 remaining against the Colts when a field goal likely would have won the game. The interception led to an Indianapolis field goal and a Broncos' loss in overtime. Which coach will win the analytics battle on Monday night? Hackett has no mulligans left. Denver's season is teetering on the edge of doom. For that reason, and against common sense, I am predicting an upset.
RENCK'S PREDICTION: Broncos 23, Chargers 22
