The Denver Broncos are in New York state for their first playoff game in nearly a decade Sunday against the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo went 13-4 and secured the AFC’s No. 2 seed. They have an MVP frontrunner in quarterback Josh Allen, the NFL’s top turnover differential by a wide margin, and were the only team to beat the Kansas City Chiefs’ starters this season.
So, can rookie quarterback Bo Nix really take the No. 7-seed Broncos into Buffalo and steal a win in his first-ever playoff game? Denver7’s Nick Rothschild got his counterpart in Buffalo – WKBW sports director Matt Bové – on the horn to break down the matchup.
Watch their entire conversation in the video player below or at the top of this story. Keep reading for a few highlights from their chat:
Is this really a good matchup for Denver?
Some pundits believe a Broncos team that is free of expectations as a heavy underdog have a good chance at shocking the NFL world on Sunday.
It’s not difficult to imagine the league leaders in sacks creating enough pressure to make Allen uncomfortable and force a couple of costly turnovers – something Denver has cashed in on multiple times this season.
It also doesn’t take any mental gymnastics to picture Nix absolutely slinging it while playing carefree football. He has, after all, completed 79% of his passes for 803 yards, 9 TDs, 1 INT and a 126.0 passer rating over the last three games.
“I don't love the line,” Bové said of the Bills being favored by 8.5 points. “I feel like the Broncos can cover and I feel like the Broncos are going to be in this game late. But that's when I trust the guy who should win the MVP over the rookie quarterback, even though I think the rookie quarterback is going to be very good.”
Bové said fans can keep an eye on the Bills running backs – namely James Cook and Ty Johnson – as key players in the game. Allen often looks to his backs to extend plays when he’s scrambling away from pressure.
“Do not be surprised at the end of this game if one of the Bills running backs leads the team in receiving, and the guy who has done that oftentimes this year has been Ty Johnson,” Bové said.
Bové also warned that Allen could burn the Broncos running the ball if Denver relies to heavily on man coverage to shut down the Buffalo passing attack.
How are Bills fans feeling about this game?
Bills fans may feel like they dodged a bullet when Kansas City benched its starters and Denver dominated in Week 18 to earn a playoff berth, thus sparing every AFC playoff team from Joe Burrow and the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals that had won five straight to close the season.
But Super Bowl aspirations – and the expectation that Buffalo takes care of business on Sunday – aren’t making life easier on Bills fans, Bové said.
“You see the betting line – and the Bills were pretty big favorites, and I think that messed with people,” he said. “I feel like people would be more comfortable if they were only supposed to probably win, not definitely win. But when you're an eight-and-a-half point favorite, you cannot lose this game. I've told people all week, this is an excruciating week if you’re a Bills fan, because there's no real positive to come out of it. If you win, you're supposed to, and now you get ready for another playoff game. If you lose, the entire season, is a complete, utter failure.
“So yeah this is a really tough week, and people are not very confident.”
What has made Josh Allen so effective this season?
Allen’s Achilles heel throughout his career has been turnovers. He racked up more than 100 turnovers through his first six seasons, including 13 interceptions per year. This year, he’s thrown just six interceptions and lost one fumble.
Bové said it’s a combination of his maturation as a player, and an improved offensive scheme.
“The whole MVP conversation is such an interesting debate because his numbers are not exceptional this year, intentionally. The Bills are making sure that he does not have to do everything every single game,” he said. “Hey, if you want to hand it off to James Cook 20 times a game, he's probably going to get over 100 yards. He's going to average four-and-a-half yards a carry, and we're probably going to win by a score or two. “
A friendly wager
If the Broncos win, Nick is sending a Peyton Manning jersey and a plate of Rocky Mountain Oysters to the WKBW studios for Bové’s enjoyment. As of Thursday night, Bové hadn’t decided Nick’s punishment if the Bills win – but we’ll keep this story updated with the latest developments.
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