ENGLEWOOD – During the spring, as the Broncos players were beginning to learn more about new coach Sean Payton, star free safety Justin Simmons turned to Hollywood for an explanation.
Payton, he said, reminded him of the movie “21,” which is about MIT students trained by a professor to become experts in card counting in Blackjack. They took the casinos for a bath. Simmons’ point? Payton understands numbers and odds when it comes to winning football games.
This Sunday is in the boss’ wheelhouse for all the wrong reasons.
History frowns on NFL teams who start slowly. Since 1966, only two teams have reached the playoffs when losing the season’s first two games at home. Denver dropped the opener 17-16 to the Raiders – the Broncos have lost a combined 22 consecutive games to the Raiders and Chiefs – and hosts Washington on Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite.
Before the season, these two games were set up as arguably their most winnable on the schedule. Fall on Sunday, and the Broncos will face longer odds than cheating a casino out of millions.
Before getting to my Denver7 keys to a victory, some news. The Broncos placed tight end Greg Dulcich on injured reserve Saturday with a right hamstring injury. He will miss a minimum of four games after sitting out seven games last season with two separate hamstring issues. Dulcich, who told Denver7 he had never hurt his hamstring before turning pro, caught two passes for 22 yards against the Raiders. He pulled up lame on the final drive of the second quarter.
The Broncos elevated running back Dwayne Washington for special teams depth. For Dulcich, it is another frustrating setback. He profiles as a mismatch weapon in the passing game, but availability remains a problem after catching 35 passes for 433 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie.
The Broncos traded tight end Albert Okwuegbunam to the Eagles for a seventh-round pick, in part, because he and Dulcich are similar players. Nate Adkins, who made the team over Okwuegbunam, will be activated on Sunday. Also, safety Kareem Jackson was fined $14,819 for his fourth-quarter hit on Raiders’ Jakobi Meyers that landed the receiver in concussion protocol.
Now, back to those keys to victory:
Howell you do it? With a better rush
The Broncos need to rush Washington quarterback Sam Howell like it’s a fraternity house. Denver produced zero sacks in the opener. No excuses. It must be better. Howell is making his first road start. The Broncos need to disrupt him, get him off his spot. He is mobile and athletic but will hold onto the ball and try to spin out of sacks that can lead to turnovers. Time for Randy Gregory to get on the board with a sack and a forced fumble.
Mix in Sanders
It’s time for the Broncos to get their best athletes on the field. This team lacks playmakers, and inside linebacker Drew Sanders is one. He is a rookie. I get it. But there’s no reason he should not get a few snaps. There will likely be 8-to-12 possessions on Sunday, so he should get 10 snaps in coverage and as a blitzer, perhaps even on the outside with Frank Clark out with a hip injury.
Leave sparklers at home!
Maybe the Broncos should head to Cheyenne, Wyo., and buy some fireworks. I kid because I care. But yeah, they need some explosives on offense. They had one pass of more than 20 yards last week. With Jerry Jeudy back to stretch the defense and produce yards after the catch that number should be at least five this week. Courtland Sutton is a possession receiver. The big plays need to come from Jeudy, rookie Marvin Mims Jr., Brandon Johnson, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey.
Run it back
Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine showed potential as a one-two, Thunder-and-Thunder combo. Williams is expected to see more duty in the second half than he did last week. He has shown that his right knee is healthy. The next step is breaking tackles with his former ferocity. Perine is an ideal safety valve in the passing game on third down.
Limit the mistakes
Perhaps the most disappointing element of the Broncos’ first loss were the 10 penalties. Payton has emphasized smart, disciplined football. The Broncos are not good enough to give away yards and extend possessions. The number needs to be closer to six this week.
Stand Pat
Cornerback Pat Surtain II is too good for his own good. Teams don’t target him because of his sticky coverage. But there will be moments Howell looks for Terry McLaurin. Can Surtain turn one of those tosses into a pick? It would not surprise me.
No more mulligans
Wil Lutz spent his career kicking inside for his home games in New Orleans. Payton trusts him. It will only last so long if Lutz struggles again. He missed an extra point and a 55-yarder last week. He made no excuses. That’s the right attitude. Now, the Broncos need the right results in yet another one-score affair, where they own a 2-7 record in games decided by a field goal or less over the past two seasons.
Troy’s Prediction: Broncos 20, Commanders 17
