BUFFALO – Sean Payton heard the question. And blurted out the answer without hesitation.
Does Monday Night Football still bring extra juice?
“Absolutely,” the Broncos first-year coach said this week.
Stand-alone games feature eyeballs. Diehards don’t miss these games. Cursory fans join in. Relatives. Friends. NFL peers. They all watch. It counts only once, but impressions made on Monday night linger, defining a team – see last year’s Broncos – for weeks to come. The Broncos have scaled the ladder rungs, inching from disappointing to interesting following their upset of the Kansas City Chiefs. Denver is healthy, rested and riding a two-game win streak.
Their momentum, though, comes with brake tapping. The Broncos boast a 3-5 record, leaving them in 14th place among 16 teams in the AFC. There is work to do when 11 teams are .500 or better. Even the Bills realize the stakes. A Super Bowl contender in August, Buffalo arrives for the 6:20 p.m. kickoff on Denver7 with urgency, sitting out of the playoff picture with a 5-4 record.
Simply put, if the Broncos want to be taken seriously as a rebound team, they need this win. And the challenge is real. Denver owns a seven-game losing streak on Monday Night football, dating to 2017, and the Broncos have not won on the road in Buffalo since 2007.
Against that backdrop, the Broncos players have embraced the challenge, understanding all details matter from the Bills logos on the Centura Health Training Center practice fields, to arriving on Saturday night to facilitate a better sleep schedule and wearing matching gray sweatsuits to create a collegiate “Broncos vs. Everybody” feel.
“If we want to get to where we want to get to, we have to go through teams like Buffalo,” safety Justin Simmons said.
There is a path, though steep, to an upset. My Denver7 keys to a Broncos victory:
Run Away and Don’t Hide
The Broncos found their identity against the Chiefs, snapping their 16-game losing streak to the defending Super Bowl champs by playing bully ball. Denver rushes for 116.8 yards per game, ranking 11th in the league. Javonte Williams, 13 months removed from ACL surgery, looks like he did in his rookie season and is coming off a career-high 27 carries, a number he had never topped in college or the pros. He told me this week he feels fresh and ready. If the Broncos can establish the run – the Bills allow 114.4 yards on the ground, ranking 18th – they can siphon the clock and mute the lathered crowd. Can Williams churn out 80 yards on 20 carries, setting up Jaleel McLaughlin for a big strike? That is needed for the upset, especially with gusty winds a possible factor on Monday night.
Stop the run
The biggest difference in the Broncos over the last two games? The ability to run and stop the run. Putting Mike Purcell at defensive tackle alongside D.J. Jones has added bulk and strength. The Bills average 108.1 yards per game on the ground, led by James Cook. He boasts 506 yards and remains a threat as a receiver.
By Josh by Gosh
Josh Allen is a star. The quarterback can beat a team with his arms and legs. Like with Patrick Mahomes, the Broncos will focus on limiting his “second act,” the improvisation when the play breaks down. Allen is different than Mahomes in this way: when he takes off, he looks to inflict pain like a running back. The Broncos must play physical with him but avoid penalties.
Can you Diggs It?
Stefon Diggs hasn’t had a game with fewer than seven targets this season, topping out at 16 against the Giants. The receiver can turn momentum with one catch. He will get his yards, but Denver must limit the big play with Allen capable of firing darts through the expected windy conditions.
Win on third down
Allen remains capable of winning by himself. He is that good. Denver must make him predictable on third down where the Bills rank first with a 50% conversion rate. The Broncos need to keep Buffalo around the 33% mark to keep this game within reach.
Turn it up
The Bills always win when they win the turnover battle. Or almost always. However, Allen will take chances, even in the red zone. The Broncos know this. Just as the Broncos forced Patrick Mahomes into mistakes, they must follow that blueprint in Buffalo, forcing Allen into at least two turnovers, preferably one in the red zone.
Russell with Muscle
At some point, teams are going to stack the box against the Broncos. Hard to see Bills coach Sean McDermott allowing Denver to run unabated. The Bills secondary continues to deal with injuries. So, if the Broncos want to pull off the upset as a 7-point underdog, Wilson needs to be efficient, play on schedule, avoid a game-wrecking sack by Von Miller and connect with Courtland Sutton in the red zone and Marvin Mims Jr. on a go a route off play action.
Troy’s Prediction: Bills 24, Broncos 18
