ENGLEWOOD – It wasn’t supposed to happen this way.
When the schedule came out, the Broncos hosting the Packers represented a turning point in the season. This was a chance to become a legitimate contender with the Chiefs traveling to Denver next week. Well, this game has become a defining moment – for all the wrong reasons. If the Broncos lose Sunday, then the talks of tanking will grow louder and the reasons for sitting Russell Wilson will become bigger.
Wilson has a $37 million injury guarantee in his 2025 base salary becoming completely secure next March 17 on the fifth day of the 2024 league year. So, if the Broncos lose Sunday and face a 17th straight defeat against the Chiefs, it’s fair to wonder if that will be Wilson’s last game starting. He could move the injury guarantee back to help keep him on the field, but the Broncos could be motivated to sit Wilson like the Raiders did with Derek Carr a year ago. Usually, that decision comes in December, but Denver spiraling out of contention could accelerate matters.
But what if they win the next two? Then what? It’s unlikely, though eclipsing the Packers is not. My Denver7 keys to victory:
Run the ball
The Broncos do not have an offensive identity. The one thing this team has done well is run the football. They are averaging 106 yards per game on the ground, and 4.9 yards per clip. It screams that is time to establish the ground attack with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin.
Play action action
Wilson can still throw the deep ball. And you know what can make it easier – doing it off play action. The Packers are missing cornerback Jaire Alexander. Time to take advantage of his absence.
X-Y-Z Jerry
Jerry Jeudy has experienced a roller-coaster ride season, frustrated by his lack of production that has bled over into social media spats. He believes he is playing better than his stats. One thing is clear: he is better as an outside receiver. This season he has spent the bulk of his time in the slot, and it has not worked out. Move him outside and see if he can become a weapon inside the 20.
Third and forever
The Packers don’t trust Jordan Love. Watch their passing game and it’s obvious. He barely throws downfield, and typically only when Green Bay is trailing. He has six interceptions over his last three games. Denver must force him into third-and-longs. If they do, turnovers should follow, especially with the pass rush of Baron Browning, Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper.
Be Strong Upfront
The Broncos rush defense looked functional against the Chiefs, showing better angles and improved tackling. The Packers will try to establish the ground game with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. They will become dangerous if they do because the screen game comes into play.
Screen Door
The Broncos have shown they can run an effective screen game. If the Packers pressure Wilson, it’s time to set up McLaughlin for a big hitter as he slips out after chipping a rusher.
Home is not for heartbreak
In baseball, the reverse lock theory exists when a team has a bad pitching matchup. The idea is that they are just due, running against common sense. It feels like that day is Sunday for the Broncos with scant few winnable games remaining on the schedule.
TROY PREDICTION: Broncos 23, Packers 20
