On Monday, Vice President Kamala Harris declared herself the "presumptive nominee" to lead the Democratic Party's presidential ticket. While there is no question she is the odds-on favorite to win the nomination after gaining the endorsement of President Joe Biden, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic leaders, her nomination isn't quite guaranteed.
President Biden announced late Sunday that he would no longer seek reelection.
Why Harris claims she is the presumptive nominee
On Sunday and Monday, numerous state delegations announced that they intend to support Harris' nomination. It takes a majority (1,958) of delegates to clinch the nomination. As of late Monday, Harris appeared to have the support of over 2,500 delegates.
“When I announced my campaign for President, I said I intended to go out and earn this nomination," Harris said in a statement late Monday. "Tonight, I am proud to have secured the broad support needed to become our party’s nominee, and as a daughter of California, I am proud that my home state’s delegation helped put our campaign over the top. I look forward to formally accepting the nomination soon."
Who decides the delegates?
Delegates were decided based on the results of the Democratic presidential primaries throughout the late winter and spring. Because President Biden ran with little opposition, he accumulated nearly all of the available delegates for this year's nomination.
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Those delegates were bound to vote for President Biden on the first ballot at the convention as long as he remained a candidate. Now that President Biden is no longer considered a candidate, those delegates are free to choose any candidate.
Why Biden was named the presumptive nominee but Harris' title remains in question
Because an overwhelming majority of delegates were bound to vote for President Biden on the first ballot when Democrats choose their nominee, news outlets like Scripps News were comfortable naming President Biden the presumptive nominee. While Harris has plenty enough support to secure the nomination, delegates are free to change their mind when voting occurs.
"The party rules state that delegates have to vote for the candidates based on the share won during the primary in the first round," said Decision Desk HQ President Drew McCoy. "President Biden naturally won the overwhelming share of the delegates in the primaries so it was reasonable to presume the delegates, which are vetted by the campaign and/or state party would, follow those rules and vote for Biden at the convention. That gave us a reason to view him as the 'presumptive nominee.'
"The process we saw playout yesterday is naturally different given Sunday's events. Individual delegates and state delegations are pledging their support but that's different than being bound by the rules to vote a certain way," said McCoy.
Decision Desk HQ has partnered with Scripps News to provide data for this year's presidential election.
When will Harris officially become the nominee?
Generally, presidential nominees are chosen at the party convention. However, because of worries about ballot eligibility, Democrats have said they want to move up voting for the nominee by several weeks. The Democratic National Convention is set to begin on August 19.
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The party has said it intends to hold its official nomination virtually sometime in the first week of August to avoid potential legal issues with ballot access.
Could Harris be challenged as nominee?
The short answer is until the delegates vote, anything is possible. But within the first 48 hours of President Biden's announcement, many top Democrats, including ones who would have been seen as possible presidential candidates, have given their endorsement of Harris. Given the overwhelming support among Democratic leaders, President Biden's endorsement and the over $100 million her campaign raised on Sunday and Monday, it will be extremely challenging to see another Democrat mount a significant challenge to Harris.
