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Study: Wildfires are moving faster, forests are less likely to fully recover

A new study from Western Colorado University found extreme fire spread events are causing long-term damage to ecosystems
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DENVER — A new study from researchers at Western Colorado University found faster burning fires are also having more severe impacts on forest landscapes.

The research, published in Global Change Biology, was inspired by one of Colorado’s most devastating wildfires.

“The East Troublesome Fire was a huge inspiration behind this research. This fire occurred in 2020 and blew up over 100,000 acres in a single day," said  Jessika McFarland, the lead researcher in the study. "It was absolutely unprecedented wildfire behavior across the Continental Divide and this really had us wondering, while these extreme fire spread events are obviously burning a large area in a short amount of time, what are the impacts to the ecosystems long-term?”

The researchers looked at satellite data from 623 wildfires across the southwestern United States and found extreme fire spread events — defined as those burning more than 12,500 acres in a single day — resulted in larger treeless areas.

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“Extreme fire spread events are generating these large, high-severity areas that effectively are increasing the distance to the nearest live seed sources. We can predict that these areas are less likely to recover to the forest they once were,” McFarland said.

That means ecosystems will be affected long-term.

McFarland said an ecosystem's resilience has impacts on a community’s recreation, tourism, culture and economics. Her research points to growing negative impacts of extreme fire spread events on ecosystems we depend on.

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Boxplots and scatterplots showing relationships of burn severity and high-severity patch metrics with daily fire spread event size. We illustrate relationships between either fire spread event types (boxplots in left column) or daily area burned (scatterplots and LME trendlines in right column) with burn severity (A and B; 0.01% subsample), proportion of area burned at high severity (C and D), percentage of like adjacencies of high-severity areas burned (E and F), and distance to nearest live tree seed source (G and H; 0.01% subsample). Fire spread event categories are defined as common (yellow; ≤ 1285 ha), large (orange; 1286–4900 ha), and extreme (red; > 4900 ha/day) fire spread events based on statistical thresholds across all fires. In boxplots, black diamonds represent mean values. Scatterplots illustrate metrics plotted against daily area burned (ha), with the x-axis on a log10 scale. Trendlines on scatterplots include 95% confidence intervals.

“I would say the biggest takeaway is just thinking about being proactive in the way that we manage our forests, instead of being reactive,” McFarland said.

The study, published in Global Change Biology, was co-authored by Dr. Jonathan Coop, professor of environment and sustainability at Western, among others.