This weekend is the most dangerous period of Colorado's avalanche season, and the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) is asking backcountry explorers to make sure they have a plan that is well-suited for the conditions — or to avoid the danger zones completely.
"Don’t try to outsmart the problem in the next couple of days," CAIC's forecast reads. "If you try, there’s a good chance you won’t come home. Are a few powder turns really worth that?"
The combination of Valentine's Day weekend and Presidents Day weekend is "one of the busiest — and deadliest — times of the season," CAIC said. More than one-third of all avalanche fatalities in February occur Feb. 14, 15 and 16, and February is the deadliest overall month for avalanches in the state.
"Over the past 10 years, eight people have died in avalanches between February 14-16, often due to improving snow conditions coinciding with increasing avalanche danger," CAIC reported.
A powerful atmospheric river storm rolled into the state on Thursday night and has already dropped heavy snow in western Colorado. This has rapidly increased the risk of large, dangerous avalanches, CAIC reported, calling it a "monster storm on a not-so-great snowpack." These slides will be capable of running to the bottom of valleys.
The storm will continue in the mountains through Saturday.
“This is the highest danger we've seen in over a month,” said CAIC Director Ethan Greene. “With a weak snowpack, a big storm, and lots of people heading into the backcountry, the risk of avalanche accidents is high.”
Avalanche danger has increased from a level 3, or "considerable," to level 4, which is "high" for many of Colorado's mountains as of Friday morning, according to CAIC's website. The scale is out of 5.
Brian Lazar, deputy director of CAIC, said some places went from low avalanche danger to high avalanche danger within 12 hours, which is not common.
Avalanche warnings, which indicate very dangerous avalanche conditions, are in place and large, natural slides are either already happening or are expected to happen. In addition, human-triggered avalanches "are very likely," CAIC said. The warning expires at 5 p.m. Saturday, but that doesn't mean the danger is gone.
“We expect natural avalanches this weekend, and people venturing into the backcountry will be able to trigger slides big enough to bury, injure, or kill them,” Greene said. “And once the skies clear on Sunday, the chances of an accident will increase due to the nice weather, new snow, and dangerous avalanche conditions.”
The Park Range, Elkhead Mountains, Gore Range, Flat Tops, Elk and West Elk Mountains and most of the San Juan Mountains will see more than 2 feet of snow and strong winds. CAIC is warning people not to explore avalanche terrain in those areas on Saturday at all because of the high danger.
"In places with the avalanche warning in place, we simply do not recommend recreating in backcountry avalanche terrain," Lazar added.
Other parts of the state will not see quite that amount of snow, but "you can expect to easily trigger avalanches in the wind-drifted snow in near and above treeline areas," CAIC said, adding that some of these avalanches may "step down to deeper buried weak layers, resulting in inescapable slides."
Lazar said adventurers should reevaluate their plans if they want to head to the mountains this weekend.
Colorado's 2024-2025 avalanche season has seen 39 incidents so far where at least one person was caught. One skier has died in an avalanche this season in the state.
Always check CAIC's website for avalanche conditions and forecasts before heading out. Bring essential gear, which includes an avalanche transceiver, a shovel and a probe, and understand how to use them.
"You're always going to be much, much safer if you're traveling with companions who also carry that gear and know how to use it," Lazar said.
Denver7 is committed to making a difference in our community by standing up for what's right, listening, lending a helping hand and following through on promises. See that work in action, in the videos above.
