DENVER — The CEO of the real estate data app Reventure is predicting a 9 percent decline in home values in the Denver metro area in the next year. Nick Gerli said the high level of inventory in the market right now is a telltale sign of a correction.
“In the case of Denver, housing inventory is now two times higher than its long-term average, and so when you see the supply on the market go up that much, that's telling you something has shifted,” Gerli said.
The Denver Metro Association of Realtor’s April report shows inventory is indeed on the rise. Homes are sitting on the market longer and there was a notable surge in new listings last month.
Reventure’s data shows Denver currently has the highest "excess" housing supply of any market in the nation. But Gerli said there’s a shortage of affordable homes for the average buyer. He said prices coming down will be a good thing for buyers and for Denver’s economy.
“For certain people, they might not like it. People who bought their house in 2022 might not like that values are going to drop but by and large, this will be beneficial for Denver,” Gerlisaid.
He cited Austin as a comparable market, where home prices have dropped 20% from their post-pandemic peak. This decline has led to renewed growth in Austin, while Denver's growth appears to be slowing.
For those considering a more affordable relocation, Gerli’s data suggests certain markets are priced 40-50% below the Denver metro area. His top recommendations include Nashville and Chattanooga, Tennessee, along with Huntsville, Alabama and Bentonville, Arkansas.
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